American Idol: A Lesson in Civics

I have been criticized for my dedication to that pageant of excess called American Idol. But for anyone interested in the ongoing election "crisis" striking the Democratic Party, a close watch of the final episodes of AI would be vitally educational.

So two really popular and talented singers, Irish biker chick and pre-autoerotic asphyxiation Michael Hutchence, have recently been booted before their time, while two singers who shouldn't have been there in the first place, Bob Marley with vitiligo and Carly Simon without the personality, continue on. Is this just bad luck? Or is it because Americans don't know talent? Well yes, it's because Americans don't know talent, but there's a much deeper meaning here. AI is a case study of shifting demographics, and a template for why democracy sometimes succeeds and sometimes fails miserably. Bear with me on this. Here are your competing demographics:

1. Teenage girls: Easily the largest and moodiest of the factions, a group that has single-handedly ruined the course of music history on several occasions. Show me a 30-year-old woman who denies having had coital contractions at the sound of "Hangin' Tough," and I'll show you a liar. This group goes heavy for pretty boys, singing either poppy love songs or boilerplate emo schlock. Originally a David Archuleta keystone, their defection to emo David Cook has signaled his meteoric rise in the ratings.

2. Disney girls: Simon once remarked that Archuleta sounded like he was performing at a theme-park show, complete with animatronic puppets. We know who this constituency belongs to.

3. Indies: You know those people who blare Indigo Girls music out their dorm rooms and tell you their favorite band is some random and ironic 3-word phrase? Well, these people watch American Idol, and they like the tool with the dreadlocks. When he faces his inevitable elimination, they will likely move to David Cook.

4. Soul/gospel fans: Let's face it, Syesha has benefited from being the only black singer in the competition, saving her from elimination time and again. But she doesn't really have much appeal otherwise, and when she's gone her voters will likely move to David Archuleta.

5. Middle-aged gays: Last week's show was Andrew Lloyd Webber. Need I say more? These are the guys who live in my neighborhood walking around with bleach-tipped hair and leathery, fake-tanned faces. You're not fooling anyone, you hear!? A real wildcard since David Hernandez left the show to rejoin his co-workers at Dick's Cabaret, but I think they appreciate Brooke White's 70s style, which reminds them of their youth. They may very well split their vote between the Davids in the last episode.

6. Country fans: This is why Kristy Lee Cook lasted so long despite being so mediocre. See, it's starting to make sense now, huh? I think they're going to fall to David Archuleta, since he's so vapidly wholesome.

So my prediction? Even though David Cook has the lead now, I think Archuleta will gradually accumulate more voters from the defeated contestants and pull off an upset, and spend his short career contributing single after single to the Disney Radio Network until he turns 21 and stops being cute. Cook will join the ranks of other finalists (Chris Daughtry and Blake Lewis) who were more original than the eventual winner, but eventually go on to greater success.

There you go, the top 6 constituencies. Nothing that Carly Smithson or Michael Johns could hold onto, and thus their premature departures. Likewise, imagine the Democratic primary season, pitting Hillary's bitter small-town voters against Obama's latte-drinking douchebags, and you'll see why this exercise was so important. Have I thought about this too much? Do I feel like a loser writing this at 2AM on a Monday night? Well...yes. I'm going to bed.